U.S. livestock: Cattle futures firm on hopes of higher cash prices

The trade is expecting a smaller hog herd, Reuters survey shows

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Published: December 20, 2023

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Chicago | Reuters — Chicago Mercantile Exchange cattle futures firmed on Wednesday amid technical trading, weakness in U.S. corn futures and hopes of higher cash prices next week as packers close out the year, analysts said.

Cattle futures may also see support early in Thursday’s session on news that U.S. consumer confidence increased to a five-month high in December, which could help to underpin the economy early next year, traders said.

Lean hog futures ended the day lower, as traders jockeyed their positions ahead of several key government reports slated to be released on Friday.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release quarterly data on the size of the U.S. hog herd, along with separate monthly reports on the number of U.S. cattle on feed and on inventories of frozen meat in U.S. cold storage facilities.

A Reuters survey of analysts found that the trade is expecting a smaller hog herd–and traders said that may support futures prices next week. But the recent Wall Street rally, driven by falling interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s dovish turn, could draw money flow out of commodities and into equities, analysts cautioned.

The cash market has been relatively slow this week, trade sources said, with one report of cash cattle trading in Iowa at $169 per hundredweight (cwt) – steady to slightly firmer from a week earlier. Light trade also seems to be developing in the Nebraska market for $170 per cwt, one trader said.

Meanwhile, the pace of cattle slaughter is expected to slow going into the Christmas holiday weekend–and be limited on Saturday, as plants prepare to be closed.

CME’s most-active live cattle February contract LCG24 settled up 1.525 cents higher, at 170.300 cents per pound. CME’s most-active March feeder cattle FCH24 rose 2.550 cents to settle at 225.750 cents per pound.

In the pork market, most-active CME February lean hogs LHG24 closed 0.325 cent lower, at 70.225 cents per pound.

 

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