Macroeconomic indicators continue to signal that previous interest rate increases have been effective. Canada narrowly missed going into a recession in the third quarter, unemployment moved slightly higher and inflation is slowing. In contrast, U.S. data indicates an economy on fire.
Retail beef prices moved seasonally lower last year, declining 12 per cent month-over-month to under $20/kg in October. The drop in retail prices allowed meat price ratios to re-align with long-term averages. Choice cutout values (wholesale prices) slowly softened over several months, but remain well above historical averages. Foodservice sales were up from 2021 and 2022, but the industry faces significant headwinds in the coming months, as costs climb faster than revenues. Beef imports continue to be well above 2022 and the five-year average in both volume and value.
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