North American Grain/Oilseed Review: ICE Closing Review: Strong finish for canola
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 19 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were higher on Friday, due to crop conditions.
A Winnipeg-based trader estimated canola crop conditions across the Prairies to be approximately 58 per cent good to excellent.
“Which is not terrific, but a fairly decent crop in total,” he commented.
In this week’s Saskatchewan crop report, that province’s canola was rated as 42 per cent good to excellent, he noted.
MarketsFarm has projected a drop in canola production for this year. In taking into account slow crop growth and the possibility of frost in September, MarketsFarm’s Bruce Burnett estimated 17.85 million tonnes of canola. Earlier this year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada predicted 20.1 million tonnes.
There were 26,342 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 13,280 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,540 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Canola Nov 449.60 up 4.20
Jan 456.60 up 4.10
Mar 463.60 up 3.90
May 469.30 up 3.80
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Friday, due to the United States Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and by profit taking.
Contracts were up by 20 and a quarter cents per bushel in August, September, November and January contracts.
In the 90-day forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S is expected to get above normal temperatures and precipitation.
Face-to-face trade talks between the U.S. and China could resume in the near future, according to U.S. Secretary Steven Mnuchin. China said it’s willing to talk provided the country can get a fair and equitable deal.
China did not buy any more soybeans from the U.S. last week, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Also, China didn’t ship any of the several million tonnes of soybeans it still has sitting in the U.S. Chinese officials told the media they want the U.S. to ease restrictions on technology giant Huawei.
The protein content in Brazil’s soybeans has dropped and that could be sales to China in jeopardy, according to Reuters. The Brazilian government reported protein levels slipped from 37.14 per cent to 36.83 per cent. China imports 80 per cent of its soybeans from Brazil.
Safras and Mercado increased its estimate of Brazil’s 2019/2020 soybean crop by 4.7 per cent to about 123.79 million tonnes. The USDA has called for 123.0 million tonnes.
CORN futures were stronger on Friday, with profit-taking having pushed up prices. Contracts were up six to six and quarter cents per bushel.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported Argentina’s corn harvest is approximately 61 per cent complete. The BAGE held firm to its production estimate of 48 million tonnes. The USDA estimated Argentina to produce 50 million tonnes.
Safras and Mercado reported its estimate of Brazil’s 2019/2020 corn crop to be 103.97 million tonnes. The latest USDA estimate was at 101.0 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were higher on Friday in the three markets. Chicago September wheat climbed nine cents per bushel, Kansas City rose seven and a quarter cents and Minneapolis gained three and three-quarter cents.
There are reports the U.S. winter wheat harvest could be finished by July 22.
The BAGE reported that more than 92 per cent of Argentina’s wheat crop has been planted. About 16.3 million acres are expected to be seeded this year.
Russia’s wheat production was lowered by 2 million tonnes, according to IKAR. Estimates have now called for 121.4 million tonnes.
Ukraine’s early grains harvest has reached 63 per cent complete, which includes about 15.4 million tonnes of wheat so far.
FranceAgriMer reported that 33 per cent of France’s soft wheat crop has been harvested, well behind last year’s pace of 64 per cent. The crop rated 73 per cent good to excellent, down from the previous week’s 78 per cent due to hot, dry weather.
Futures Prices as of July 19, 2019
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton