North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola finishes steady

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Sept. 17 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were steady Tuesday just as the Prairie harvest was picking up the pace.
There were slight losses for the nearby contracts while the deferred contracts saw small increases.

A trader said farmers have been selling off of the combine and they still have a great deal of canola in their bins. He added that from a buyer’s perspective canola is well priced and that crush margins have increased.

The Canadian dollar was firm at mid-afternoon Tuesday at 75.46 U.S. cents.

There were 28,947 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 31,771 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 20,178 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 452.50 dn 0.20
Jan 460.90 dn 0.20
Mar 469.10 dn 0.10
May 475.50 up 0.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Tuesday, as better than expected crop ratings, weaker outside markets and good weather forecasts combined to push down bids.

In the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) weekly crop progress report issued on Monday, soybeans rated 54 per cent good to excellent condition, which was down one point from the previous week. Soybeans setting pods reached 95 per cent, up three points from last week, but behind the five-average of 100 per cent. Soybeans dropping leaves was at 15 per cent, behind the average of 38 per cent.

The USDA reported a sale of 260,000 tonnes of soybeans to China on Tuesday. As with Monday’s sale of 256,000 tonnes, it’s believed this is part of the recent deal for China to buy 600,000 tonnes of soybeans. Also, there is market speculation that China could purchase 1 million to 3 million tonnes of soybeans. However, before the U.S./China trade war, the latter was set to purchase 30 million tonnes.

The U.S. long-range forecast isn’t calling for frost for the rest of September. Rather, the forecast called for above normal temperatures in the eight to 14-day outlook.

African swine fever was found in South Korea and approximately 4,000 hogs were culled. It was discovered in North Korea earlier this year. The disease is widespread in China and Vietnam and is present in Eastern Europe as well. African swine fever is almost always fatal to hogs and there is no cure or vaccination.

CORN futures were lower on Tuesday, following the lead of soybeans.

In the crop progress report, the USDA said corn was 55 per cent good to excellent, for no change from last week. Corn dough hit 93 per cent, back of the average of 98. Corn dented reached 68 per cent, behind the average of 87. Corn mature was at 18 per cent, was less than half of the average. The corn harvest registered four per cent when the average is seven.

It was reported that China won’t expand its ethanol program due to low corn reserves. The country’s has about 2.2 billion bushels of corn, down from 8 billion at the end of the 2017 marketing year.

Brazil has continued to export corn at a record pace. So far this year nearly 26.60 million tonnes has been exported, compared to 10.40 million tonnes a year ago.

WHEAT futures were down on Tuesday, for the same reasons as soybeans and corn.

The USDA reported the spring wheat harvest is 76 per cent complete, but that’s well behind the five-year average of 93 per cent.

The planting of winter wheat registered for the first time this year and was at eight per cent, with the average at 12. The late soybean crop is likely to curtail the amount of winter wheat acres that get planted.

Australia cut its forecast for wheat exports by almost eight per cent due to drought conditions hurting production. Recently, Australia lowered its production forecast from 21 million down to 19 million tonnes of wheat this year.

Japan issued a tender for about 128,000 tonnes of wheat that called for about half from the U.S. and the rest from Canada and Australia.

Ethiopia issued a tender for 400,000 tonnes of wheat that closes Oct. 23.

Morocco said it will slash its tariff on wheat from 135 per cent to 35 per cent.

Futures Prices as of September 17, 2019

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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