North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola continues lower

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, July 28 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was weaker for the second session in a row on Wednesday, with thin volumes exaggerating the move as investors liquidated long positions.

While hot and dry Prairie weather conditions remain a supportive influence, those drought concerns have been largely priced into the market already and traders are thought to be waiting to get a better handle on the size of this year’s crop.

Chicago Board of Trade soyoil futures were up, which provided some underlying support for canola. However, Malaysian palm oil was weaker overnight.

About 16,948 canola contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 14,296 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,764 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were traded within a narrow range on Wednesday, with the bias slightly higher at the close.

All eyes in the soy market remain on the shifting Midwestern weather forecasts and what they mean for production.

The latest outlooks call for hot and dry conditions to continue into the middle of August, although the longer range outlook is for more moderate conditions later in the month.

CORN was also supported by weather uncertainty, with dryness in some areas countered by scattered showers in others. Frost in Brazilian corn growing regions was also supportive.

Weekly ethanol data showed average production of the renewable fuel in the United States during the week at 1.014 million barrels per day. That was down slightly from the previous week to the lowest level in 10 weeks. However, ethanol stocks were up by 215,000 barrels, at 22.733 million.

WHEAT was sharply higher, with the largest gains in Minneapolis spring wheat.

A crop tour of U.S. spring wheat growing regions this week was showing yields well below average in the Dakotas, as crops there were decimated by drought.

The first day of the tour pegged yields in North Dakota of 29.5 bushels per acre – well below the 45.6 bushels per acre reported on the first day of the last tour two years ago.

Bullish chart signals contributed to the gains, with a move above nearby resistance levels encouraging additional buying.
However, seasonal harvest pressure for winter wheat did weigh somewhat on values.

Futures Prices as of July 28, 2021

Price Change
Milling Wheat
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New Barley
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Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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