North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola drops sharply with soybeans

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Jan. 10 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures canola contracts were down sharply on Thursday, finishing right above major support as losses in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex spilled over to weigh on values.

The most active March contract settled right above the psychological C$480 per tonne mark, as bearish technical signals and speculative selling pressure contributed to the declines.

Soft demand from both exporters and the domestic crush sector contributed the declines, as ample supplies in the commercial pipeline had end-users content to only buy on a scale-down basis.

About 10,964 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 12,752 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 5,558 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were down sharply on Thursday, as optimism over trade relations between the United States and China dissipated.

Brazil’s CONAB released updated estimates on the size of that country’s crops, pegging soybeans at 118.8 million tonnes. That was down from the December forecast of 120.1 million, but still above most other trade estimates that had averaged around 117 million.

However, while Brazilian production may be down from earlier estimates, large exports are still expected.

CORN futures were also softer, with rising production estimates out of South America were behind some of the weakness.

CONAB pegged the Brazilian crop at 91.2 million tonnes, while private forecasters Agroconsult estimated a 95.6 million-tonne corn crop. That compares with the 82 million tonnes grown a year ago.

In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate for that country’s corn crop to 44 million tonnes. That compares with the 32 million tonnes grown last year.

WHEAT futures were lower, as strength in the U.S. dollar index and spillover from the losses in corn and beans weighed on values.

Bearish export news contributed to the softer tone, as U.S. wheat missed out on the latest Egyptian tender.

Futures Prices as of January 10, 2019

Canola
2019-01-09 17:00
Price Change
Jan 479.40 0.00
Mar 480.50 -4.40
May 489.00 -4.60
Jul 496.60 -4.30
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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