At the time of this writing, crude oil has plunged $40 per barrel, losing 37 per cent of its value, since prices turned down from $107.73 in June 2014. This market’s steady decline may have come as a surprise to some followers of oil, but for those who study charting and technical analysis, they were […] Read more
Drozd: Crude falls to four-year low, casts shadow across commodities
Drozd: Classic head-and-shoulders top signals end to bull soybean market
The November 2014 soybean futures contract has lost over US$2 per bushel in the past two months. Once prices dropped below $12, a classic chart formation referred to as a head-and-shoulders top was completed and prices quickly plunged to the pattern’s minimum price objective of $11.31. The head-and-shoulders top is considered the most reliable chart […] Read more
Drozd: Livestock producers look ahead to lower meal costs
To the relief of livestock producers, soybean meal prices have started to soften. At the end of May, a harami alerted producers to a downturn in the meal market. A harami is a reversal pattern often seen on a candlestick chart. This particular harami materialized at the height of the rally on the CBOT soybean […] Read more
Drozd: Tweezer bottom signaled reversal in Nov. canola
Canola prices on the November 2014 futures contract lost nearly $100 per tonne before retracing a percentage of those losses. Four months after turning down from a high of $530 per tonne on Oct. 24, 2013, a tweezer bottom alerted savvy traders and farmers alike that the market was about to turn up. A tweezer […] Read more
Drozd: Harami signaled market low before oats’ record-high rally
Nearby oat futures contract posted a new historical high of $5.33 per bushel on Feb. 26. This exceeded the previous high of $4.58 in July 2008. Referencing the March 2014 oat futures contract in Chicago, this rally began from a contract low of $3 per bushel on Oct. 2, 2013, the same day a harami […] Read more
Drozd: Canadian dollar hits 3 1/2-year low as snowbirds head south
One year ago, the Canadian dollar was at par with the U.S. dollar. This year the loonie is only worth 94 cents to the U.S. dollar. Although the weak Canadian dollar makes vacationing in the southern U.S. more expensive, the lower Canadian dollar is supportive to Canadian grain prices. In reality, though, grain prices in […] Read more
Drozd: Spring wheat prices continue down slippery slope
Wheat prices have been drifting lower for the past five weeks, taking back the 65-cent gain experienced during the seasonal rally into October. Spring wheat futures prices at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) have slid to a three year low of US$6.9325 per bushel, a price not seen since October 2010. Prices have been under […] Read more
Drozd: Corn prices continue to trend lower
Corn on the nearby weekly futures contract has lost 50 per cent of its value since rallying to a record high of $8.43 3/4 in August 2012. Cash prices are closer to $3.50 per bushel — a price not seen since July 2010. Pressuring the market is the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s estimate of a […] Read more
Drozd: Charts gave early indications of canola market downturns
The price of canola on the nearby weekly futures contract has declined $178 per tonne or the equivalent of $4 per bushel since May 2013. With basis levels deteriorating, cash prices have fallen further — as much as $5 per bushel. Tight ending stocks at the end of the 2012-13 crop year and reduced acreage […] Read more
Drozd: Lean hog market succumbs to seasonal downturn
Nearby lean hog futures prices have declined 18 per cent since mid-August. The Labour Day weekend traditionally signifies an end to the summer barbecue season, and with packers having satisfied their short-term needs, the resulting reduction in demand is partially responsible for the seasonal downturn in prices. Also weighing on the market is not only […] Read more
Canadian Cattlemen Presents: Depth of Field
